We want to wish everyone a very happy and prosperous new year, and hope to see you again in 2016 at conferences or here in Washington. The Congress has been very busy at the end of this year and proud of the fact it accomplished the passage of major highway and education bills that had lingered on the congressional agenda for months, and also approved a tax break and spending package, avoiding a government shutdown. Appears that Congress is working again. As Speaker Ryan recently was quoted. “We passed more major legislation in a few weeks than we have in a few years.” See my other recent blog post for details of the recent legislation that broke the congressional deadlock.
Who won the Democrat and Republican Gift Exchange: Roll Call Article by Nathan Gonzales Dec. 24, 2013
Instead of fruitcake, each party gave the other a sparkling set of potentially potent political opportunities. And regardless of whether it was intended, there is a common theme among the gifts on both sides.
5 Gifts From Republicans to Democrats
Ted Cruz: The junior senator from Texas nearly single-handedly changed the trajectory of the midterm elections to a referendum on the tea party and the government shutdown. The botched rollout of HealthCare.gov might have bailed out Cruz by shifting the focus back to the Affordable Care Act, but there is still almost a year left for the senator to rise again.
The tea party: One of the only entities less popular than President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party is the tea party. However you want to define it, the tea party is the gift that keeps on giving to Democrats. Whether through rhetoric, tactics or damaged candidates, Democrats will use this gift in races across the country to try to bring down Republicans, even ones who aren’t part of the movement.
The government shutdown: Democrats are determined to make the 2014 elections a referendum on the tea party and an unpopular Congress led by the Republican House majority. The government shutdown was a gift that played right into Democrats’ hands. Even though it’s over and may not happen again, Democrats will remind voters about it next year and use Republican votes for the piecemeal bills as evidence that they voted to “shut down the government.”
Georgia GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss’s retirement prompted a crowd of Republicans to jump into the race to succeed him. At a minimum this gift could produce a damaged and financially broke GOP nominee after a bitter runoff on July 22. Or even better for Democrats, Republicans could nominate a potentially unelectable candidate. Georgia isn’t a swing state yet, but this gift could make the Senate race competitive next year.
Tom Latham’s and Frank R. Wolf’s Retirements. Democrats have been waiting for both GOP congressmen to leave so that they could seriously challenge their seats in Iowa and Virginia, respectively. Republicans apparently decided to grant Democrats an early Christmas miracle when both men announced their retirement on the same day. Democrats have a great opportunity to win both seats next year, unless their party’s gifts to Republicans get in the way.
5 Gifts From Democrats to Republicans
An unpopular president: There may not be a bigger gift this season than an unpopular president before the midterm elections. Obama’s job rating stands at about 42 percent approve and 54 percent disapprove, according to the HuffPost Pollster average. Obama’s job rating stood at 45 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove before the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans made major gains in the House and Senate. Of course the president’s standing can improve, but it won’t be easy.
“If your like your health care plan, you can keep it”: Even as the White House and some Democrats on the Hill are working to make this gift irrelevant, it is likely to be the one that keeps on giving next year. Obama’s now nuanced campaign promise is more than a policy issue. It risks damaging his credibility, which can be much more difficult to recover. And some Democratic incumbents are on the record saying the same thing. Politifact added to the gift by declaring the statement the 2013 “Lie of the Year.”
The Affordable Care Act: This is practically a re-gift from 2010, but Republicans won’t turn it down. Some optimistic Democrats believe the ACA will ultimately be a gift to their party, as people start to enjoy the benefits. But some Democratic strategists and candidates see it as that gift you get that you can’t return or even give away. The legislation continues to be very polarizing and particularly unpopular in right-leaning districts and states where the battle for the majorities will take place.
Rep. Jim Matheson’s retirement: Cycle after cycle, Republicans failed to defeat the Democratic congressman from Utah. But his recent retirement announcement opens up the 4th District, and makes it a very likely GOP takeover.
Senate retirements: If Sens. Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, Max Baucus of Montana, Carl Levin of Michigan, and Tom Harkin of Iowa hadn’t announced their retirements, we wouldn’t be talking about Republicans having a chance at winning a Senate majority next year. A couple of them could have faced competitive races, but not all of them. The open seats are a huge gift from Democrats to Republicans.